Thought of the Day - April 18 2021 - By the Numbers

This week the number of people who have officially died from COVID-19 exceeded 3 million. Moreover, the number of new cases reported daily around the world is now double what it was two months ago. So we still have a long way to go.

We reported three weeks ago that India had identified a new "double mutation" variant. While there is still little data available concerning this variant there is a good chance that it may be the driver for the significant increase in cases experienced there over the past month.

For the first time since the pandemic began Canada's level of COVID is higher than the US. Our new cases per capita now exceed that of the US. And the lagging indicator, hospitalizations, are almost on par.

Looking across the provinces, while Ontario has garnered the lion's share of the press this week with the announcement of a new round of Shutdowns ( Thought of the Day - April 16 2021 - Ontario Shutdown 2.0 ), Alberta still has the highest case counts per capita. Moreover, Alberta's positive test rate is higher at around 9% versus 8% for Ontario, thus the higher level of testing is not the main driver when comparing provinces.

Death rates show quite a different picture. Medical services in Alberta are seeing the lowest fatality levels of any of the large provinces. Half that of Ontario. Alberta also currently has 40% fewer people in the hospital.

Here in BC, the Howe Sound local health area, which includes Whistler, continues to be the highest point of transmission in the province. The region is at nearly 80 new cases per 100,000 population, triple the provincial average - guess that is the price you pay for allowing spring skiing. In response, anyone over 18 in the Whister area can now get vaccinated.

Variants now make up more than 60 percent of all new COVID cases in the province. This is a massive surge from just nine weeks ago when variants first took hold. The UK variant is dominant in Fraser Health, and Brazil in Vancouver Coastal Health.

Overall case counts continue to be driven by those aged 19 to 39. The recent surge in hospitalizations due to COVID-19 has been linked to people aged 40 to 59 years old. Hospitalizations are highest among those aged 60 to 79, but are followed very closely by those 40 to 59.

The week's shout-out goes to Manitoba. They were particularly hard hit in the county's second wave, when they had case counts similar to what Ontario is now experiencing. While there has been some increase of late, their case counts are around 10 per 100,000. So not much more than a third of the national average.

Cheers

Cliff