Thought of the Day - February 19 - Why All the Traffic?

With high unemployment and organizations still actively encouraging those that are working to do so from home, with no tourists and many public venues with restricted attendance how come the roads are so busy? As seen by the rising gas prices car travel has been back with a vengeance for some months now.

There are a number of reasons:

1. Just because people are working from home does not mean people are not going out. Actually, with the flexibility of work from home people are taking more trips during the day: to shop, go for a lunchtime outing, pick up the kids from school, to take a break from screen time, support their side-hustle, or just because they miss driving. Thus while travel during morning rush hour is lower, the number of urban trips is not.

2. Home deliveries. Getting stuff delivered has become the new normal, this business doubled in 2020. And while drones have been promised, the white van convoys are everywhere. No need to say more.

3. We have to face the fact that the population of greater Vancouver is still growing, at about 1% a year, and in 2020 most of this growth was in the suburbs, not in-town condos. Moreover, existing residents have been moving out to the suburbs where a car is mandatory. This means the addition of about 15,000 cars by the end of 2020 over 2019.

4. People are not using public transport. The Greater Vancouver public system used to provide over half a million trips a day, thus displacing about 250,000 cars. While Translink has yet to release Q4 figures, you can see that ridership, which saw a slight recovery in the summer, plateaued at less than 50% of 2019 usage in Q3 ( Thought of the Day - May 4 - Impact on Public Transit ). It is estimated half of this reduction comes from less travel (no tourists, fewer commuters), the other half is being done using other vehicles, the vast majority of which is by car.

4. People are not taking traditional vacations, and so while they are definitely staying home more, when they do have a day off they are more likely to spend it in the local area, and that means the use of a car.

5. There is a seasonal effect, people like their creature comforts. In the winter people are more apt to drive rather than bike, take public transport or walk. Usually, we do not notice this as in the summer tourism clogs the roads, offsetting the effect, but the effect is more apparent this year.

6. Finally, although this past year has been an opportunity for municipalities to build out infrastructure, and so we have seen new bike lanes, sidewalks, overpass refurbishment, repaving but, to be honest, very few roads have been expanded or new roads built.

As I know first hand, this has also meant that it is getting harder to find used vehicles, as people once again add a second car or are hanging on to their existing vehicles.

While a number of these drivers should subside along with the threat of COVID, as we have said before people have long lead times, meaning slow to change established habbits, so driving is bound to continue to be the norm through 2021.

Cheers

Cliff