Thought of the Day - February 9 - COVID Hangover

As we look forward to life post-COVID, a new term is coming up, the "COVID Hangover". People have lead times for change and, like when COVID first hit, it took us months to understand and react to the reality of the situation, when COVID starts to wind down it will take months for us to be able to cope with the new normal.

As you know the airlines have been one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, but of course when things start to ease people will think ahead and book that dream vacation, plan to visit relatives and friends they have not seen for over a year, or just take the opportunity to try to cash in those Air Canada credits. But the airlines have another problem, a real example of a "COVID Hangover" - rusty pilots.

With nearly 75% of commercial passenger flights cancelled, it has been months since many pilots have flown. Aviation experts and airline representatives acknowledge that when pilots are inactive for several months, their skills and proficiency deteriorate; things that are normally done by rote have become distant memories.

The US Federal Aviation Administration used to bars pilots from flying a commercial jet unless they have performed at least three takeoffs and three landings — either on a plane or in a simulator — in the previous 90 days. But the FAA amended that requirement twice last year, giving pilots more leeway by giving longer and longer "grace periods". No public hearings were held because the FAA concluded that the pandemic emergency required the new rules to take effect immediately.

While simulators are an option, they are a limited commodity and with airlines bleeding cash they are not keen to expand their use.

Luckily, so far, there have been no reported incidents of out-of-practice pilots causing accidents that have injured passengers. Aviation experts say there are enough backup systems in modern passenger jets to prevent minor oversights from becoming serious accidents. But there is evidence that "rusty pilots" are a problem. The International Air Transport Association, a trade group for the world's airlines, reported a steep increase last spring in planes making "unstable approaches," which typically occur when pilots try to land at too high a speed or without enough thrust and have to make last-minute adjustments. The Association reported that the rate of "unstable approaches" jumped from about 13 or 14 for every 1,000 flights before the pandemic to more than 35 per 1,000 mid last year.

It should be noted that travel by air is one of the safest ways to reach your destination, you are far more likely to be killed on your way to the airport, but with the return to the new normal in the travel industry still many-many months away, this hangover will only get worse.

Cheers

Cliff