Thought of the Day - January 21 2022 - My Thoughts on Our 2022 Spring Reset

Earlier in the week we talked about the opportunity afforded us this spring to step away from many of our COVID measures. If you have not seen the earlier blog please do so before reading further ( Thought of the-Day - January 17 2022 - Our 2022 Spring Reset ).

Of course, as SARS-CoV-2 moves into its endemic stage we will still see significant outbreaks across the country throughout 2022, as isolated enclaves become infected.

And what do I think is likely to happen this spring here in Canada as COVID moves from the pandemic to the endemic phase?

Emergency Measures - Here I think that a number of provinces will follow BC's lead and step down their emergency measures. Like BC they will enact some number of policies to extend indefinitely beyond the cession of the emergency measure under which they were drafted. One of the reasons for dropping emergency measures, besides placating the masses that object to them being enacted in the first place, is that if and when a measure is required in the future a state of emergency can always be called then. In fact, doing it in this way will add importance to a policy change.

That said, I do not see the Feds stepping down at this point. We currently have some of the most restrictive travel policies (from a testing, process and vaccine brand perspective) to rationalize first. These would be difficult to sustain without emergency powers (I am sure there are lawyers just waiting).

Testing - I see mass testing continuing to wind down. Testing will go back to being focused on the high-risk and the symptomatic. Those that want to, and are willing to pay, can still get additional testing in order to travel or continue with employment at organizations still under a vaccine mandate.

COVID Vaccination - As I said earlier, this is a foregone conclusion. I have been stunned that a number of people I know are already past their fourth shot and ready for their next in March. This means some people get a shot every three to four months, and yet we still have a vaccine surplus!

Vaccination Passports - The provincial governments that stepped in before the Federal standard was announced will quietly phase out their local passports. Having two systems is not sustainable. Being more of a vaccination record than a passport, the Federal system does not use terms like Fully Vaccinated or colours for staus and thus is more flexible.

Vaccine Mandates - This will be the main area of contention. I do not see employers, including government departments, who took the step of saying they do not want to employ the unvaccinated as easily being able to step back from this position. Any explanation on reversing the decision will simply highlight the limited reasoning behind its initial introduction. Also, the unvaccinated are unlikely to seek employment with an organization known to fire people for reasons that have nothing to do with their ability to perform the job.

My hope is that mandates will not be expanded, either in scale, meaning requiring a plethora of boosters, or scope, with further restrictions.

Physical Distancing - We will see many physical distancing measures start to be removed. Venues will be allowed to reopen and postponed events rescheduled. As we have been training ourselves for almost two years now the stigma will take longer to phase out. I predict as enforcement begins to wane, we will see even more flare-ups between members of the public - those that continue to insist on physical distancing measures, including mandatory masks, and others that push their newfound liberty to the limits. Personally, I think that some elements should be retained, and, in the case of PPE, should actually be stepped up.

So in summary:

• Emergency Measures: States of emergency will be dropped in most provinces, however, the federal state of emergency will continue.

• Vaccination Passports: Those Provinces with separate provincial passports will quietly phase them out by allowing the Federal passport as a substitute.

• Vaccine Mandates: Many current measures will continue. With a few exceptions, boosters will probably not be mandatory.

• Physical Distancing: Venues and events will open up, with much less enforcement of other physical distancing measures.

The provincial outlier here is Quebec; with their curfew and expansion of vaccine mandate restrictions, they are still busy adding measures. The wild card is the Federal Government. For political popularity reasons the US and the UK are rapidly winding down COVID measures, I am not sure that Trudeau feels this pressure.

So with a little effort with the coming of spring, we should be able to put this pandemic thinking behind us.

How did this line up with your thoughts?

Cheers

Cliff