Thought of the Day - July 18 2021 - By the Numbers

Europe will soon, once again, be the epicentre of COVID cases. They are rapidly catching the falling South America figures.

The European Center For Disease Prevention has now put the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Luxembourg, Cyprus, and parts of Greece and Denmark on the list of code red (high-risk) countries due to the high number of coronavirus infections. The UK has now exceeded 50,000 new cases a day. Following the largess of the Euro Cup 2020, travel restrictions are being implemented across Europe. Unfortunately, as we mentioned last week, not before tourists infected their favourite destinations ( Thought of the Day - July 11 2021 - By the Numbers ). This week the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man, joined the BVIs, Fiji, Cyprus, and Seychelles with some of the highest per capita daily cases in the world (the BVIs and Seychelles are also now in the top five in deaths per capita) ( Thought of the Day - July 12 2021 - Vaccination, A Selfish Act? ).

Two weeks ago we talked about the probability of cases increasing in the US due to Independence Day travel ( Thought of the Day - July 4 2021 - By the Numbers ). This is now coming to fruition. Cases have more than doubled, hospitalizations are up over 30%, and deaths have increased by 25% since that time. The Delta (India, B.1.617.2) variant has now grown to 60% of new cases across the US.

Meanwhile, in Canada, our cases have dropped by 35% and deaths by 49% over the same two-week period. Canada's worst-hit region, the Yukon, which had higher case counts than any of the US states a week ago, has now been overtaken by seven of them (this while still having fifteen times the Canadian case average).

What does this mean? Well obviously the US has now started its next wave. Let's hope it subsides before we open the border in August - or we risk becoming the next tourist destination to see cases spike.

Today Canada should hit an auspicious figure: half of our population is now "second-dose" vaccinated. Overall we have now administered 15% more vaccination per capita than the US (who, by the way, have now been overtaken by China in vaccinations per capita) and have now exceeded the US in the percentage of people fully vaccinated.

This week's shoutout goes to Canada, compared to much of the world we are doing well, and unlike much of the world, our numbers are still declining. Moreover, we have done this against a backdrop of largely rolled-back domestic restrictions, broad vaccination and limited civil unrest.

Cheers

Cliff