Thought of the Day - July 26 2021 - Delta Implications

Sorry to "dwell on Delta", but I am surprised many people do not realize that SARS-CoV-2 is no longer "your grandfather's virus".

A new study indicates that the Delta variant (India, B.1.617.2) infection produces over 1,000 times (for you technical folk that is three orders of magnitude) more inoculum in the respiratory system than the "original" variant Novel Coronavirus (China, D.614) (ironically it has no name under the new WHO naming convention). This is the reason that the Delta variant is so much more transmissible. In addition, due to its virility, the incubation period is a couple of days less than the "original" variant, and a significant amount of transmission actually occurs ahead of any significant COVID-19 symptoms. Moreover, the symptoms are subtlety different. For example, they now include a running nose and sneezing.

So what do we know:

1. The Delta variant is at least twice as transmissible as the Novel Coronavirus (China, D.614) ( Thought of the Day - June 25 2021 - Delta, Delta, Delta );

2. Canada lost valuable time in managing this variant - which was identified in December 2020 - largely because we did not report on it until recently. Across Canada, the dominant variant is now the Delta ( Thought of the Day - July 25 2021 - By the Numbers );

3. As Canada does not allow low-cost antivirals, getting vaccinated is your only option to lessen the impact of infection ( Thought of the Day - June 23 2021 - India Does the Right Thing );

4. Repeat vaccination will be required to fully participate in society in Canada going forward ( Thought of the Day - July 15 2021 - Mandatory Vaccination Debate ).

So what does this mean:

1. As a "fully vaccinated person" you can still, and will, spread the disease;

2. Cases in Canada a month from now will be an order of magnitude higher than we are currently enjoying, due to the continued transmission;

3. As a "fully vaccinated" person, you are 50% less likely to get seriously ill and 90% less likely to die. But the truth is, many people will still die in Canada's fourth wave;

4. During our fourth wave, people will also continue to contract "Long COVID" (more about this later in the week);

5. Due to the continued spread around the world, there will continue to be more serious versions of this virus later in 2021 in Canada (one possibility is combining the transmissibility of Delta (India, B.1.617.2) with a potential "vaccine escape" (meaning major symptoms) of the Lambda (Peru, C.37) and the like.)

In summary, with Canada entering its fourth wave, courtesy of the Delta variant, maybe you should not discard those masks so quickly.

Cheers

Cliff