Thought of the Day - July 7 - Coronavirus and Employment Turnover

Now Phase 3 is well underway here in BC I was thinking a little about what might be happening in the workplace. Besides the obvious, new protective measures such as social distancing and continue work from home, I believe we are also going to see an unprecedented level of employment turnover.

Up to this point there have been a number of drivers:

• Business Closure: The impacts from businesses that have substantially downsized or closed all together;

• Business Growth: Companies that are booming during the pandemic: Online service and content providers: Zoom, Telus, Slack, Electronic Arts, Pornhub, Netflix and even Wix (this blog platform); Government departments: Worksafe BC, Employment Canada; Cleaning and PPE products and services (Clorox, 3M); Large grocery chains (Costco, Superstore); Delivery services (many: food, errand, moving and long-haul), Vehicles (boats, motorcycles, bikes, cars), have been hiring people away from other, less fortunate, organizations;

• Health: Lastly, while the numbers very are small in BC, some people who have had COVID-19 are no longer with us, or are now health-compromised.

But now a second wave is coming (employment-wise):

• Workers Not Returning: Workers who have reevaluated their situation during the last months and are choosing not returning to the full-time work. Instead they have chosen to: retire, focus on a side business/part-time or contact work, continue directly caring for loved ones, conclude appropriate protective measures are not yet in place, or be content to milk the Trudeau-bucks, are not returning to work for the foreseeable future;

• Workers Looking For Different Options: While many are just glad to get back to their old job, a number are now looking for career changes, either due to the mishandling of the crisis by their current employer, seeing limited chance for sector recovery, or having already started a retraining program or pursuing their dream job;

• Lack of Foreign Workers: Continued travel restrictions mean limited student and foreign worker availability;

• Growth of New Business: New "Pandemic" businesses are growing (custom mask making, business signage, remote fitness, specialized delivery services, games/educational aids, self sustainability support etc.) supporting the "new normal";

• Further Downsizing: Companies are now embracing the new normal and are anticipating the end of government employee subsidies, thus they will need to make further permanent rightsizing moves;

• Filling the Gaps: Finally there is the pull-thought effect. Due to major employment disruptions, organizations are also scrambling to back-fill vacancies through internal transfers or more external hiring.

Remember we are still at the start of this pandemic. As we are seeing south of the border, the second COVID-19 wave will just amplify many of these factors.

I am guessing employment changes will affect more than a million workers in BC this year. With the knock on effect on family, this means more change and stress (good or bad) for over a quarter of the Province in 2020. Guess it's time to get your hands on a copy of "Who Moved My Cheese" (S.Johnson), "The Life of Riley" (A.Cronin) or "What Color is Your Parachute" (R.Bolles).

Of course as well as hardship you have to realize 2020 will be an unprecedented year of opportunity for many.

Cheers

Cliff