Thought of the Day - June 20 2021 - By the Numbers

Cases

The Delta (India, B.1.617) variant continues to romp around the world. The UK is still seeing rising case rates despite high vaccination rates, Moscow has just announced new lockdown measures, countries as far apart as Columbia, Indonesia and South Africa are seeing significant case increases.

Here in Canada, things are still improving across the country (other than a recent spate of cases in the Yukon).

While numbers are still not reported by Health Canada, at least they have now labelled the Delta (India, B.1.617) variant as a variant of concern (VOC) for Canada. Dr. Tam, who has the inside scoop, reported the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases attributed to the highly contagious variant jumped 66 percent in Canada this week. She says we have now seen over 2,000 cases of the variant. A recent surge of cases in Waterloo, 76 of which are confirmed as Delta, is concerning. So fingers crossed for the next couple of weeks.

Vaccinations

Canada now leads the world in first-dose vaccinations! InformationIsBeautiful puts the figure as over 67% of our total population as having had a first dose.

That said, like other countries, such as Israel, Bahrain and the US, our first dose rate is starting to slow. Canada will probably plateau at close to 70% (the UK had also slowed but the rash of cases and postponement of the easing of restrictions, bolstering the public's enthusiasm for vaccination).

Thus, Canada's 75% first-dose target now looks unobtainable without a major policy change (to illustrate the slowdown, remember just last week it was projected we could reach 75% by July 5th, yet a week later it will now take us until July 20th). On the other hand, fully vaccinated numbers continue to accelerate. We should reach the 20% mark this coming week, and probably be over 30% by Canada Day.

Please don't be fooled by all the other figures being quoted: % of adults, % of 12+, % of eligible, % those who want it etc. All that matters in terms of protection, reduced transmission and potential herd immunity is % of the total population. These other figures are just used to promote specific agendas, including to confuse the issue.

This week's shout-out goes to PEI. They are COVID-Free once again! They have not reported a case since June 3rd. Those cases have now recovered, so the province now has no active COVID cases. As you know, they have also never had any deaths attributable to COVID-19.

Cheers

Cliff