Thought of the Day - March 28 2021 - By the Numbers

Today we will focus on Canada.

The Bottom Line (in case you are pressed for time):

• The third-wave is here;

• We are in for a bumpy ride in April;

• Vaccinations should start to have some effect on spread starting in May;

• At our current vaccination rates it will take until the end of the year to get fully vaccinated;

• We need to double our current vaccination capacity now, if first-shots are to be delivered before the end of July.

And now on to the numbers.

The Third Wave:

Our third national wave is ramping up, new cases are up 20% compared to two weeks ago, led by the western provinces. Not wanting to be left out, Ontario has also announced high-numbers for the past couple of days. As seen in many countries, the third-wave is driven by more infectious variants.

In BC right now there are almost 6.5k actives cases, about the same as when the second-wave kicked off on my birthday in November 2020.

Variants:

Hajdu recently mentioned we are spending $53 million on our “variants of concern strategy”. This includes funding for research into the variants, surveillance of their spread, and sequencing of the virus. Let's hope this is not too little too late. So far there have been 1,912 identified cases of variants of concern in BC: 1,666 cases of UK, 47 South Africa and 199 Brazil. And there is now discussion on another from India.

Hospitalizations:

The increase in the number of cases is not a figment of testing. Hospitalizations increase 8% over the past week as they following the same pattern.

Vaccinations:

This week Canada, and BC, went over the 10% mark for people who have received a single dose of the vaccine.

It has been suggested that around 75% immunity might stop the variants. We are now administering about a million vaccines a week. But if you do the math at the current rate (1.5% of the population a week now) it will take more than 40 weeks or nine months to get there. Wait, what, that is the end of the year (and don't get me started on the rumours that pharma companies are working on booster-shots for the fall).

Here is a simplistic graph. At our current vaccination rate, about 40% of Canadians will have had a first shot by the end of July. In fact, by then all of our capacity will need to focus on catching up with the second shots that were arbitrarily delayed for four months. On the other hand, if we triple our capacity during April we will easily reach the target.

Yes, if we are serious about all people that want the vaccine getting their first shot by July, we need to more than double our current rate of vaccination. Every week that goes by makes herd immunity by the summer more and more unlikely.

Israel started seeing a decrease in cases at the end of January. At that time 30% of their population had had at least one shot. While there were a number of factors at play, it is likely that vaccines had some part to play in the decrease. This means Canada will have to at least reach this mark before it starts to affect the third-wave. With our current trajectory, this is still more than six weeks away, meaning nothing before the May Long-Weekend.

Shout-Out:

This week's shout-out goes to Québec. After a tragic 2020 (close to half of the deaths in Canada occurred in their province), Québec has been decisive and innovative, and so are now a little better positioned for the third-wave than most provinces.

Specifically:

• Timely, enforced restrictions: have both curtailed behaviour and emphasized the seriousness of the situation;

• Leadership in vaccination: Initiating the single-dose strategy early, as well as not following recommendations from the medical services. Specifically, instead of prioritizing hard-to-treat locales, they have focussed on high-outbreak regions, specifically in greater Montreal. In short, prioritizing prevention over treatment.

Cheers

Cliff