Thought of the Day - May 24 - By The Numbers

This week I thought I would give you some different analyses. Since I started the weekly graphs back in March media outlets have caught up with their own, and in many ways more effective, data displays. Here is a cool site (thanks Matt) that you might want to review: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

But don't worry, you can still see all the graphs you know at love right here: https://clifffraser0.wixsite.com/covid-19/the-numbers

Indeed the main issue nowadays is not visualizing the data but rather the accuracy, availability, and timeliness of the underlying figures.

Canada added just under 8,000 cases this week and BC under 100 (overall we do have a flat-curve).

Leading the way in cases, as they have for the past month, is Quebec.

Looking at the ratio of resolved cases (recovered & fatality) divided by total cases you get a feel for how far through the first wave we are. Most of Canada is over 85% of the way there (with the Atlantic Provinces pretty well done), however, Quebec is not much more than one-third of the way just ahead of the US. This means community spread is still ongoing and fatalities (which lag case detections) will continue for quite a while to come. This of course will be exacerbated by Quebec's premature re-opening.

You can also see the same thing comparing the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), which is the percentage of how many of all the "official" cases have died (this is optimistic as it assumes that the rest of the cases will recover), and the Outcome Fatality Rate (OFR) which is the ratio of fatalities to resolved cases (defined above). If the numbers are similar it indicates that the wave is under control, if not that there is still a way to go before the two figures converge. Again this highlights the troubles still to come for Quebec and the US.

Another key piece of information we need is what percentage of the population has been infected and thus is now potentially immune (more on this in a later blog). Up to this point Canada has chosen not to introduce antibody testing (through clinics or direct sales to the general public) (more on this next week also). Thus I have taken the: case rates; antigen testing rates; ratios from other countries (where antibody studies have been done); and academic studies in Ontario and Quebec, to come to a rough "guesstimate" for Canada. This graph shows the current infection rate contrasted with where we may have been a month ago.

As you can see, in Quebec and the US probably around 7% of the population has now been infected. Yet here in BC it is more likely only 1%; so while our first wave is pretty well over this means we are still in the very early stages of the pandemic. Even the most affected Montreal neighbourhoods are nowhere near to herd immunity.

Cheers

Cliff