Thought of the Day - November 6 - And Now for Something Complete Different

You are not going to believe it but I typed this up back in late April. I decided not to post as at the time it seems too pessimistic, even dire. Anyway last week I was going through and deleting old unpublished drafts but here, unedited, is what I had queued for posting on May 19th. Scary thing, after six months the three scenarios are still the three scenarios.

Buckle your seat belts and here we go:

Before the end of the month and the update of the timeline, both forward and backward, I figure I would start to discuss what may happen as we look forward. To put these thoughts of the day in perspective I figure I would paint three scenarios for what things may look like a year from now.

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Worst Case (Armageddon):

(skip if you want better news): The Pandemic continues unabated. Continued functional mutation or immunity loss means immunity is still at a very low level. No safe, scaleable, effective vaccine has been found. Reinfection routinely occurs as a consequence, driven by the need for people around the world to eek out a living. Mega-cities are starting to depopulate as many return to rural subsistence living.

While case-counting has been abandoned months ago, it is estimated Canada has reached ten-million cases, and deaths are now over half-a-million. The Canadian average age has been reduced by three years and life-expectancy by five.

Reuse and self-sufficiency are now the buzz-words. The travel & hospitality industries are gone - with the exception of the growing and much maligned eco-isolation industry for the rich and famous. The physical retail industry has transformed. Everyone sees the issues that dominated headlines in 2019 (climate change, poverty prevention, even the plight of the latest celebrity or sports star) as irrelevant.

A few counties, that have managed to eradicate the virus, are doing better. However places like New Zealand and Iceland need to spend an ever-growing percentage of their GDP fending off "illegals"; even with the ban on private ownership of ocean-going vessels.

Most countries' financial systems have collapsed, and there is wide-spread civil unrest. While hyper-inflation actually improves the level of public debt it means real purchasing power has declined by 25% in a year. Schooling is largely apprenticeship into trades and crafts. Mask making, cellular phone repair, essentials delivery, and other "corona businesses" are thriving.

There is no mass entertainment, the internet is becoming a scarce commodity.

New heroes emerge. "Looking after friends and family" is the new mantra.

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Likely Case (The New Normal):

There are still reported outbreaks of coronavirus; effective treatments have brought the serious case rate well below 1%, or a vaccine is starting to be deployed. In Canada infections are estimated at close to a million cases, along with over twenty-five thousand deaths.

Society has now embraced the new normal: effective spread-prevention techniques are now commonplace. New verbs such "to mask" or "getting the vid" along with "zooming" have joined the vernacular.

International travel has restarted but is expensive and requires significant advance checks. While "immunity card" battles still continue - approved vaccines, tracking apps and antigen tests are now being agreed between countries.

Industries hardest hit are still functional due to public funding. The Canadian economy is recovering, led by agriculture, resources, and telecommunication but with 20% unemployment this is still the main topic on everyone's mind. Companies have used this opportunity to "right-size", automate and outsource. This is followed by cries for the civil service to follow suit.

Schooling is largely distance learning.

Mass entertainment events are a thing of the past, all is online. eSports are the big thing. New celebrities emerge.

"Embrace the new normal" is the mantra.

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Optimistic Case (The Big Recovery):

Either we have brought the R0 well below 1%, or a safe, scaleable vaccine has been broadly administered. The virus has now largely died out. Canada's total deaths has been less than ten thousand.

The Canadian economy is doing fairly very well; boosted by the technology sector. In fact with gaps in the elder population and people electing to retire, the pull-though effect has increased opportunity for youth.

People are cashing in their credits for travel cancelled in 2020 and making up for lost time.

The fall school term was successful, and many have caught up with the curriculum.

The energy sector returns as the main issue Canada is tackling, oh and the US election fallout.

Current celebrities return. Mass entertainment events are now back in full force. "Live life to the fullest" is the new mantra.

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Ironically all of these scenarios will be seen in different parts of the world, but I will home in on why I think the middle scenario is most likely for Canada.

Cheers

Cliff