Thought of the Day - September 26 2021 - By the Numbers

The overall global trends continue along the similar lines we have been talking about for the past couple of weeks. Cases and deaths around the world continue to subside, this week by another 10%. And, the tourist destinations, many of which are ill-equipped to deal with the consequences of COVID, continue to take the brunt of the cases and deaths per capita around the world: Grenada, Bermuda, New Caledonia, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, Saint Martin, Montenegro, Dominica, Cuba, St Vincent and Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Costa Rica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Sint Maartin, Belize, Seychelles, Saint Lucia, and Barbados were all in the top 25 in cases or deaths per capita over the past week.

The US wave continues to subside. Hospitalizations also continue to decline - the US hospitalizations per capita are now only four times that of Canada.

Not unexpectedly the US death figure does continue to climb. When cases peaked a couple of weeks ago it was hoped that a top would be forthcoming in early October, as a harbinger for Canada's peak.

Meanwhile in Canada, some great news!

Cases have declined 5% overall in the past week. Provinces such as Alberta and BC, which kicked off the fourth wave, are declining before any major outbreaks in Ontario or Quebec have taken hold.

As you can see, the outlying areas are now the outliers. The Atlantic provinces and the Territories are still seeing increases. While Alberta has more than one-third of the cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada, it should be noted that the Northwest Territories (538) and Saskatchewan (403) now both have more new cases per capita than Alberta (350).

So are we now at the cusp? We called the US peak the first week of September, will Canada now follow suit one month later as thought, or is the University of Washington team closer to the mark? Is this more a temporary slowdown than a trend? Stay tuned next week.

Cheers

Cliff