Thought of the Day - August 27 - Decrease in Death Rate

While cases continue to mount across Canada there has been a dramatic change in the number of people dying from COVID-19. Cumulatively by mid-July Canada's Case Fatality Rate (CFR) stood at 8%; meaning at that time 8% of the people diagnosed with COVID-19 had died. And our Outcome Fatality Rate was 13%; meaning just considering the people who had died or recovered your chance of dying was 13%. Looking just at the past month the CRF is 1.6% and OFR is 1.8%. Overall there has been nearly an order of magnitude improvement!

But where does this improvement come from?

1. In the past, only high-risk people could get tested. As we know from friends, people that were not old, did not have severe symptoms, had no underlying medical conditions or had not travelled outside of Canada and the USA, could not get tested. In recent months testing has been expanded and so many more young people are being diagnosed, and of course, they have a much lower possibility of dying from COVID-19;

2. The figures have been changing. Mid-July Quebec joined the rest of Canada in their classification of Recovered (Thought of the Day - July 19 - By the Numbers). Also, I suspect the criterion for "dying with" versus "dying from" has been tightened up. For example, the UK removed 5,000 deaths - now once someone has Recovered and subsequently dies, they are no longer counted as a COVID related death (Thought of the Day - August 13 - Covid-19 Long-Haulers);

3. Rather than simply protecting the medical system we are now more effective at protecting the most vulnerable (Thought of the Day - August 3 - Covid Deaths In Canada Are All About Care Homes);

4. Treatment is getting more effective. Some countries have seen even more dramatic improvements here (Thought of the Day - July 22 - The One Chart You Must See);

5. Mask wearing and physical distancing measures mean people that are getting sick probably have received a smaller viral-load and thus have more of a "fighting chance" (Thought of the Day - June 22 - Masks Revisited).

Keep in mind these improvements and the resulting decrease in death rates are not unique to Canada. As you can see from the cumulative CFR indeed most countries are doing better than Canada, however, as of late we have really turned things around.

Cheers

Cliff