Thought of the Day - January 24 - By the Numbers

Well, here we are on the eve of one hundred million official cases, with over a quarter of those still active.

In Canada, case rates and hospitalizations (shown below) have been declining in recent weeks.

As the second wave continues to subside in Canada, we find ourselves sitting squarely between Tunisia and the Ukraine with a little over 500 deaths per million, almost double the world average. Quebec continues to lead the pack with more than double the Canadian average.

We have been hearing the good news that the measures in place for COVID prevention have pretty well stymied the spread of seasonal flu. Putting this in perspective, despite a third of Canadians taking the flu "vaccine", Canada's annual death rate from influenza is about 200 per million, so about 1/3 of COVID. There is also a significant overlap in the demographics of those worst affected by either infection, so in reality close to one-third of the people who succumbed to COVID-19 would probably no longer be with us even if 2020 had been a normal year.

"A third" seem to be the theme this week. Israel, after vaccinating 1/3 of its people, is now reporting that the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine after one shot is only 33% (less than the pharma company reported from clinical trials and of course way less than the 95% advertised after the second shot). As new case levels continue to be high in Israel they are accelerating the Pfizer second dose; Quebec is considering following suit.

The vaccine story in Canada this week has been that Pfizer has stopped shipments to Canada. They claim that this is "to expand their European manufacturing volumes". This may be a good thing as it gives a chance to fully analyze the deaths in Norway to confirm there are no product quality issues.

Thus, with only Moderna coming in, the Canadian rollout rate is starting decline, and we are plateauing around 2.5%.

Unfortunately, Canada has still not approved the AstraZenica vaccine this is now in use in: Argentina, Brazil, Dominican Republic, India, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, South Africa and the UK. As the EU gets close to an approval AstraZenica, rumours of an European AZ supply shortage have also started to circulate.

This week's shout out goes to the North-West Territories. No deaths and the highest vaccination rate in the country.

Cheers

Cliff