Thought of the Day - June 1 2021 - Vietnam

Vietnam has been a leading example in containing the virus, thanks to an aggressive strategy of early screening of passengers at airports and a strict quarantine and monitoring program. But since late April, Vietnam has reported a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases. Almost half its 7,300 confirmed infections were reported in the past month. While numbers are still very, very low by western standards, the increase is worrying.

Note: I plotted this with a log scale so you can see the growth. Vietnam still has twenty-five times less per capita cases reported each day than Canada.

As happened, in South Africa, Brazil, the UK and India, there is a good possibility that a new variant may be the driver. "A new coronavirus variant with characteristics from the existing Indian and UK variants had been detected in Vietnam for the first time," Vietnam's Minister of Health Nguyen Thanh Long told a national news conference on Saturday. "The fourth wave of COVID-19 in Vietnam included infections in industrial zones, multiple sources of infections and the presence of various coronavirus variants. It will spread very fast and it will be very difficult to control."

The WHO said its Virus Evolution Working Group was working with officials in Vietnam and four people were confirmed to be infected with a new strain. "From what we understand, the variant they detected is the B.1.617.2 variant possibly with an additional mutation."

Despite case numbers still being low, Vietnam is taking decisive action. Last week, they widened lockdown measures in its industrialized north. On Sunday, the government announced social distancing restrictions for Ho Chi Minh City (home to nine million of Vietnam's 96M people). The new measures, in place for two weeks from Monday, include the closure of non-essential services, such as shops and restaurants, and the suspension of religious activities. Ho Chi Minh City has seen a rise in cases related to a religious mission that has recorded at least 125 positive tests, accounting for most of the city's infections. Public gatherings of more than 10 people are also banned, and the city is considering halving that number. Vietnam is ramping up testing to 100,000 tests a day. Ho Chi Minh City has suspended commercial COVID-19 tests for those travelling abroad until further notice to focus resources on the local outbreak. Today Hanoi suspended international flight arrivals for the next week.

Vietnam has so far received 2.9 million vaccine doses and aims to secure 150 million this year. The health ministry is working to secure 10 million doses under the COVAX cost-sharing scheme, as well as a further 20 million doses of Pfizer's vaccine and 40 million of Russia's Sputnik V.

Let's hope the swift action when faced with a new domestic variant of concern means Vietnam will not follow the path of South Africa, Brazil, the UK and India.

Cheers

Cliff