Thought of the Day - June 17 - The Search for the Source

One of the many important challenges in the management of this pandemic is to trace the source of 2019-nCoV. This is important for a number of reasons:

1. to understand how this virus developed;

2. to understand if and where it has spread in the wild;

3. to understand how it initially spread.

All these will assist mankind in avoiding or lessening the impact of this and future potential pandemics.

Unfortunately, initial hypotheses have not yielded little. First, it was thought it mutated in, and was spread by bats. Yet while the carrying and infection in mammals, for example, felines and mink, is well documented, there has been no evidence that bats can carry this virus, let alone be infected by it. Moreover, sanctuaries around the world have reported nothing.

Then there was the role of the Pangolin. While trafficking of this animal is tragic, if you do a little research there seem to be no estimates as to how many are left in the wild, and more significantly that their ranges have any connection with the Hubei Province in China.

Next is the role of the Wuhan Market. While it did indeed play a role in the outbreak in Wuhan, we now see there were already cases in the Hubei province and indeed in other countries, such as France, a month or more ahead of this outbreak. The Wuhan Market does not actually deal in bats and also is unlikely to be an outlet for the illegal Pangolin trade. Moreover, any large market can be a vector for spread, as is now the case in the market that supplies the majority of produce to Beijing.

The strange thing is over the past couple of months there has been very little reported concerning work underway or further results in tracing the origin (See the Timeline: https://clifffraser0.wixsite.com/covid-19/timeline-all).

Of course, another reason to get to the bottom of this is also to quash the growing number of conspiracy theories - such as: this was a man-made or a man-modified virus that escaped. This is fuelled by the fact there is (was) an internationally-funded Level 4 bio-lab (The Wuhan Institute of Virology) that does leading-edge research on coronaviruses, including "gain-of-function" work; meaning increasing infectivity or lethality of the virus, as well as species migration. And let's not forget the lesser talked about the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, who also carries out research on bat coronaviruses.

Oh, wait, maybe I have my answer. Could it be that the conspiracy theories themselves are the reason the origin is being covered up? This is either because one of the conspiracy theories is correct, or that there are certain "special interest" groups who are benefiting from the fallout and the spread of these rumours to achieve their ends, end which do not include discovering the truth of the origin.

Either way, I predict it will be quite a while, if ever, before we know the real story. The sad thing is, like SARS, MERS and now SARS-CoV-2, we, the general public, will be surprised again when SARS-CoV-2 reemerges or when the next novel coronavirus rears its ugly head in another decade or so.

Cheers

Cliff