Thought of the Day - March 24 2021 - Excess Deaths

On Monday we talked about Russia and how looking for alignment between excess deaths and the tally from COVID was one approach to ensure numbers are being accurately reported. As mentioned, at the end of October 2020 the excess deaths in Canada aligned very closely with the total number of COVID deaths ( Thought of the Day - March 22 2021 - Meanwhile in Russia ). However, Statistics Canada has now released data to the end of 2020 with the conclusion "COVID-19 cannot fully account for the excess deaths observed in Canada in 2020, particularly in the fall". So why is this?

Could it be Canada has changed the COVID reporting criteria? Unlikely, while there has been some true-up over the last weeks the numbers look reasonable. No, unfortunately, the real reason is, deaths from other causes are on the rise. And the main driver for these? Pandemic restrictions.

We talked about the rise in substance abuse, and how in BC more people died from an overdose in 2020 than from COVID. By the end of the year, overdoses in BC were up 74% in 2020 and the situation is worsening across all the major cities in Canada, and our preoccupation with COVID means there are less support services there to help ( Thought of the Day - February 18 - Putting Things In Perspective ). The second issue is delayed medical procedures. People have been told not to go out, and so they continue to delay and defer vital interventions, thinking "if I can just hang on until the vaccine arrives". Take cancer screenings for example. Estimates say suspension by six months in primary screening for colon cancer alone means missing early detection in 2,200 cases, and this could lead to 960 additional deaths, breast cancer - 250 deaths, and the list goes on. This effect is now starting to manifest. And finally, mental health, cooped up for months domestic violence is also on the rise - at least in Canada we have been spared public violence.

We are now treading a fine line. There is more and more evidence that lockdown measures while saving lives from COVID are no longer having the impact on excess deaths as we saw through much of 2020. StatsCan is always several months in arrears in reporting. I believe when Q1 2021 reports come out, figures will be even more skewed. The gaps first appeared in BC, Alberta and the Maritimes, but I predict we will see a shift to Ontario and Quebec who implemented significant lockdowns through year-end.

So remember, now more than ever look after yourself and your family (oh, and your neighbours too).

Cheers

Cliff