Thought of the Day - April 4 2021 - By the Numbers

The World

Despite the press' focus on the significant increases in cases across Europe of late, South America is also in the same situation.

And tragically South America now has a far greater number of new deaths (almost double that of Europe) meaning many cases are going undetected and medical services are stretched. In short, South America is now the epicentre of the third-wave, driven by the Brazilian variant (the one that has infected at least fourteen players and four staff with the Canucks).

Canada

This week Canada marked a new milestone, a million official cases, with BC reaching 100,000. Saskatchewan, who never really cleared their second-wave, has now moved back into the top spot in news cases per capita over the past week.

But it is Ontario with the highest death rate over the past week, per capita and in total. In response, they have implemented further province-wide restrictions.

Hospitalization continues to climb in Canada. We are now to the level of the peak of the first wave, about half of the second wave.

However, ICU figures tell a different story. We are well on the way to the second-wave peak numbers, showing these variants are hitting people hard.

Ontario, where the majority of ICU patients are located, has revised its reporting criteria adding an additional few percent to the count. But regardless, under either scheme, they have now exceeded their second wave peak. Thus the trend in deaths will continue in this province.

Vaccinations

Here are the leading countries in vaccinations - Canada is 47th with 16 doses given per hundred people.

Last week I introduced this graph showing how we are doing against the target that all people will be able to have at least one shot by July (95% of the population). This past week we did see an increase in our capacity (by close 50%) so I have updated the graph (I assumed Easter closures will not have a negative effect). If we keep up this rate of increase and thus double our rate again by mid-April, we can still make it by late July (grey and yellow lines).

Of course, the next hurdle is vaccine confidence, otherwise capacity will outstrip uptake a couple of months from now. Here is a graph that shows the results of a survey done across multiple countries when asked: "If a COVID-19 vaccine were made available to me this week, I would definitely get it."

As you see confidence in Canada has been slowly rising from a little over 40% late last year to 60% today.

Shout-Out

This week's shout-out goes to the Northwest Territories. While they had a bumpy start to the year, they have not seen a new case for almost two months; thus they have no active cases. They have never had a death from COVID-19, and they lead the country in people fully vaccinated.

Cheers

Cliff