Thought of the Day - May 2 2021 - By the Numbers

Unsurprisingly the world COVID figures are dominated by India. Official new cases are now up to 400,000 a day. Given that the case positivity rate in India is topping 20%, this means probably only half of the symptomatic cases are being detected. In short, there are probably a million people a day getting infected in India right now.

The world's case-fatality rate is about 2%. Given India's medical system is overloaded and supplies like oxygen are running out, this means unlike the "official rate" of 3,500 deaths a day, a death rate in India of over 20,000 a day is more likely - more than the rest of the world combined.

No wonder people in India have stopped using the term COVID-19. Whatever the strain(s) now rampant in India the effect is now being called COVID-21.

Meanwhile in Canada, the third wave continues to subside in most provinces. New cases are down 7% compared to last week and active cases are down 4%. The notable exception is Alberta. While in previous weeks the higher case count could be explained by higher testing rates, something else is going on now. Alberta currently has twice the Canadian average in cases per capita. Moreover, Alberta's positivity rate is about 10%. This is much higher than Ontario's at 7.5% and Canada's overall 4% figure.

This week the death rate per capita is lead by: the Yukon, Saskatchewan and Ontario. However, I would think in the coming weeks we will see Alberta climbing the ladder.

On the vaccine front, a third of Canadians have now had their first shot.

Looking at Canada's vaccine safety page, as of April 23rd, nearly 12M vaccine doses had been administered (call it 10M Canadians). Of those vaccinated, a little over 600 Canadians are in real trouble due to vaccine side effects.

Here is the federal side-effect reporting site: https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-health-products/medeffect-canada/adverse-reaction-reporting.html

Here is the convoluted BC adverse-events reporting site: http://www.bccdc.ca/health-professionals/clinical-resources/adverse-events-following-immunization

Also, the vaccine suppliers also have side-effect reporting sites: e.g. https://www.pfizer.ca/reporting-side-effects

This week's shout-out goes to Nova Scotia. Due in part to allowing the redirection of their vaccine to the territories early in the year, six weeks ago Nova Scotia had only vaccinated half the number of people as compared to the Canadian average. They have since caught up. Nova Scotia is now on track to deliver the first dose to all who want it by June. In addition, Nova Scotia has been catching up on its testing backlog. So while it looks like their case numbers have increased significantly over the past week, this is simply Nova Scotia finally catching up with reporting.

Cheers

Cliff