Thought of the Day - May 6 2021 - It's a Start

It has been a year since the WHO started saying unless the majority of the world gets vaccinated SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic. This was one of the drivers behind the COVAX program.

That said, there are three main impediments to a significant proportion of the world being vaccinated - the three "C"s: Cost, Capacity and Components.

For six months India and South Africa have been leading the charge to suspend pharma company patents/royalties. Without this change, low-cost vaccines are not possible and thus will only be generally available to "wealthy nations". Yesterday the US announced that 'The Administration believes strongly in intellectual property protections, but in service of ending this pandemic, supports the waiver of those protections for COVID-19 vaccines.' While there is still a long way to go, this is a step in the right direction. Hopefully will be followed by similar statements from Europe, Switzerland and the UK. Naturally, big drug companies (Moderna, J&J, AZ, Pfizer, BioNTech etc.) oppose patent waivers. As well as decreased revenues in the near term, with the halt of endemic COVID-19 (hopefully), it will dry up a massive revenue stream for the future.

Pharma is shooting back with rhetoric that the real issue is manufacturing capacity not cost impediments, and they are correct. However, while they may believe they are in the best position to dictate how manufacturing should ramp up, the mess with J&J manufacturing in the US and the delays in delivery as Pfizer tried to ramp up production in Europe, say otherwise. Waiving intellectual property rights also means that other manufacturers can start production without the blessing of big pharma. As seen with other generic drugs, as well as massively increasing supply this will also drive down cost.

And there is a third piece to this puzzle. The elimination of restrictions on vaccine components. As mentioned before, the US Defence Act prohibits the free trade of vaccine components. As India has complained for some time, this is being used by the US to limit their ramp-up of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The main issue with addressing the three "C"s is time. As we are witnessing it has already run out for India. It will take time for political posturing to lead to legislative change. In addition, unless mandated, Pharma will not facilitate technology transfer. Thus new suppliers will need the time to "reverse engineer" the manufacturing process.

And where is Canada on this? Canada has been one of the countries opposed to the waiver, and indeed the forward purchase of multi-years of the Pfizer vaccine shows we support endemic COVID-19.

Cheers

Cliff