Thought of the Day - November 10 2021 - Back Over to Russia

Eight months ago we did a bit of a dive on Russia, the main conclusions were that Russian authorities were dramatically underreporting deaths, which was exacerbating mistrust in the government and would ultimately lead to lower than optimal vaccination rates ( Thought of the Day - March 22 2021 - Meanwhile in Russia ).

Now Russia is reporting a record number of daily coronavirus cases, despite just completing a week-long holiday period declared by the government to combat the spread of COVID-19. According to figures published by the government on Saturday morning, over forty-one thousand new cases of coronavirus were recorded, a record since the beginning of the pandemic.

And what about deaths? Russia is currently the world leader in new deaths for the first time. The country recorded 1,239 new deaths yesterday.

Overall Russia has recorded more than 8.7 million cases since the start of the health crisis, and an official death toll has now topped 250,000, fifth in the world behind Mexico. However, there are still cries that that figure continues to be underreported. According to their statistics bureau, the figure actually doubles that if "with COVID" is included. This, theoretically, moves Russia into third place, ahead of India. And, as predicted, despite being early to market with Sputnik V, vaccination rates are still low. At present, less than 40% of Russians are vaccinated.

On October 24, Putin issued a series of orders to speed up testing across the country, curtail operational hours of restaurants and other public venues, and impose stricter isolation requirements for those infected with the virus. To encourage vaccination, he also called for incentives (two paid days off) for those willing to get inoculated (since then there has been a steady uptick in vaccination, especially in Moscow). In addition, Putin declared a holiday period from 30 October to 7 November to curb infections (in Moscow, this meant schools, beauty salons, shops, gyms and other "non-essential" services were closed, a measure akin to a lockdown.) While nationwide restrictions are now lifted, the Novgorod region in northwestern Russia for example is one that has continued this lockdown.

In addition, Russia is taking the proof of vaccination route for access to venues and mandating vaccination for certain sectors. A new system is being put in place with improved QR codes, replacing a system that was abandoned earlier this year due to the high level of forgery.

Russia also has a number of COVID-induced economic woes. While, compared to Canada, their economic growth is still forecast to be higher, their inflation rate is higher as well. One of the current issues is the continued negotiation concerning Russian gas supply to Europe (Russia is Europe's largest supplier ( Thought of the Day - October 6 2021 - Lack of Energy ) and the pending EU decision concerning the Nord Stream 2 pipeline - remember the pipeline is built and is ready to go, but EU regulators, under pressure from the US, have agreed to turn it on.

It is looking like case numbers may have peaked, and the gas might just flow, but it also looks like it will still be a tough winter for the people of Russia.

Cheers

Cliff