Thought of the Day - November 12 - Vaccine Candidate Update

This week Pfizer has been in the press concerning their COVID-19 vaccine candidate. I thought would do a little deeper dive and see what is new in this potential $10B market (and this could be an annual figure if the vaccines developed are only effective short-term) ( Thought of the Day - October 21 - Vaccine Candidates ).

Here is a list, as far as I can tell, of the front runners in this race, those now in Phase 3 (see the earlier article concerning clinical trial phases Thought of the Day - May 13 - Vaccine Trials Are Coming )

Vaccine Candidates in Phase 3 Trials:

There is also Sputnik V that, despite extensive trials, is still not yet considered to be in Phase 3 by some journals as they are not employing testing methods endorsed by Europe and the USA.

Canada has direct investment in four of these (J&J, Moderna, Novavax and Pfiser).

Recent Press Information:

Pfizer/BioNTech (BNT162) As mentioned they had a press release stating that their vaccine has shown promising results in Phase 3 trials, claiming it has 90% efficacy; an impressive result. This is good news, as it means there may be a light at the end of the COVID tunnel. With around forty-four thousand people from around the world involved, the first hurdles that of near-term safety and potential efficacy have been reached. Canada has pre-ordered 20 million doses (US 100M, UK 30M, and EU 200M doses).

On the other hand, while this is a step in the right direction it is all good news:

1. It is an mRNA vaccine, a vaccine type that has not been used successfully before, thus we need to be extra careful concerning longer-term potential side effects;

2. It requires a significant "cold-train". In short, this means it needs to managed and distributed at -80C;

3. This vaccine candidate requires two doses - these results came from those only one week after the second dose - so there are concerns about the longevity of any immunity;

4. This is simply a press release, it is not based on a peer-reviewed scientific analysis;

5. Oh, and the announcement was made hours before Pfizer's CEO sold 62% of his shares in the company.

J&J (JNJ-78436735) J&J came out with a press release that they would provide their vaccine at cost: ~$10. However you have to understand this is the production cost, not the cost to vaccinate, which will be hundreds of dollars higher when distribution, delivery and administration costs are factored in. The J&J candidate does have the benefit of being a single dose vaccine, and does not require an extreme cold-train and so total costs would be lower than the Pfizer offering. Johnson and Johnson has one of the largest Phase 3 trial with 60,000 people, but the last news was it was on hold due to an "unexplained illness". Canada also put in an order for half a billion dollars of this vaccine for 38M doses (US $1B for 100M, EU 200M doses).

Novavax (NVX-CoV2372) Compared to other companies mentioned here, Novavax is a smaller player. Along with CureVax, they have received significant funding from the Gates Foundation. Their candidate was just approved for Phase 3 trials in the US and Mexico. Canada has ordered 76M doses (US ordered $1.6B their largest commitment to a vaccine candidate to date).

Moderna (mRNA-1273) After delays in testing due to a number of potential significant issues in their test group, testing has again been resumed. Late last month they completed enrolment of 30k people for Phase 3 trials. Canada has preordered millions of doses (US 100M, Japan and Qatar have advance orders as well).

AstraZenica - They announced two weeks ago that their vaccine candidate produced immune responses, in both young and old; more results to come at the end of the year. They have followed J&J's lead by saying that their vaccine would be available on a cost basis. Canada has ordered 20M doses (US $1.2B for 300M doses, EU has ordered 400M doses).

Sinovac (CoronaVac) - Brazil has just resumed Phase 3 trial which aims to recruit 130 thousand volunteers. Trials are also underway in Turkey and Indonesia as well as China, making it the most widely administered at present. Canada has ordered no doses of this vaccine candidate.

RDIF (Sputnik V) Not wanting to fall behind in the press wars, a new claim was made this week their data shows 92% efficacy. About 40 thousand people are involved in their Phase 3-Like trial (16k used for the preliminary results). Like Pfizer judgement should be reserved until claims are peer reviewed. This is a dual-dose vaccine. The plan, in conjunction with Turkey, is to produce half-a-million doses in November. Canada has ordered no doses of this vaccine candidate.

GlaxoSmithKline (no name) They are taking a different approach with the press in stating they will provide 200M vaccine doses for equitable distribution through COVAX. This vaccine candidate is still in Phase 2 trials. Canada has preordered 72M doses.

Cheers

Cliff