Thought of the Day - November 28 2021 - By the Numbers

It has been a while since we looked at Oceana. This forgotten continent has been doing very well COVID-death-wise. The last time we looked at this part of the world was when New Caledonia was having its major outbreak ( Thought of the Day - September 22 2021 - New Caledonia is in Trouble ). Now, with reports of new levels of outbreaks and civil unrest in Australia, I guess it is time to have a cursory look at some numbers.

Oceana is really the tale of three regions.

First, there are the very heavily affected tourist islands of French Polynesia, Fiji and New Caledonia. Next, the main countries, Australia, Papua New Guinea and New Zealand. Finally, the remaining, less-visited, islands, that are doing quite well, with no active cases (despite having a serious outbreak back in the spring of this year, Wallis and Fortua is also in this group).

Here is a graph of cases in Australia over time.

Reacting to their most significant wave to date, last month, Australia pushed forward with further lockdowns and restriction policies (coupled with corresponding protests). While numbers did come down significantly through the end of October, they now look to be on the rise once again.

Meanwhile, Europe is still in a mess.

Cases continue to skyrocket, now the highest per capita of any continent at any time.

Due to the benefit of vaccines, deaths are not climbing as rapidly. That said, as this is a numbers game, with more cases will come more hospitalizations. Therefore, I predict Europe will probably reach the same daily fatality levels as seen in their biggest wave early in 2021.

Germany, the UK and Russia now lead in cases, with France rapidly closing in. Russia, Ukraine and Poland lead in deaths.

I am skipping an update on the latest wave in the US this week due to erratic reporting due to its public holiday.

Here in Canada, it looks like the eastern provinces are leading the dance going into our next wave. Quebec, New Brunswick, Ontario and PEI now have significant growth in case counts. Together they have driven-up Canada's case figures by 16% over the last week.

Here is a look at the changes in Canada over the past two weeks.

Late this week, both CBC and CTV depicted a significant new case anomaly in Quebec - double their current daily new case count. There was no explanation given for this spike. I can speculate this may have been due to recent underreporting of new cases in Quebec, but I will continue to look into it.

CBC - Canada Daily Cases

CTV - Quebec Daily Cases

I have been asked from time to time why I bother to pay any attention to case counts. As we know, these figures are affected by public sentiment and government policy. In short, the more you test the more official cases there will be. That said, new case counts are still the best we have as a leading indicator of future hospitalizations. Moreover, I also follow them as yes indeed they can provide insight into changes in public opinion and government policy.

This week there is no shout-out. While certain parts of the country are doing well, for example, Nunavut (that was mentioned last week) and Newfoundland & Labrador (that are bucking the Atlantic Provinces trend), none have seen a significant new improvement to be called out.

Cheers

Cliff