Thought of the Day - November 7 2021 - By the Numbers

The world has now reached half a billion documented COVID cases. As mentioned last week official deaths are now over five million, however, these are known to be significantly underreported. The WHO estimates the number of deaths to be at least 50% higher. The Economist also recently reviewed global excess deaths. They estimate the range of COVID-related deaths as being between 10.3 million to 19.5 million, with the best estimate coming in at 16.8 million - or more than three times the stated number.

Unfortunately, primarily due to Europe at present, global numbers for new cases and deaths are on the rise once again.

The US still has the highest number of new cases at nearly half a million over the past week. Russia is next and they also have the highest number of deaths over the past week. The UK is not far behind in cases and is still tenth in the world in new deaths. Turkey, Ukraine and Germany follow on in cases as well as deaths.

Here you can see the massive change over the last two months as Europe replaced North America as the epicentre.

The same is true in deaths albeit several weeks later. If Europe follows its current trajectory, there could be 500,000 additional COVID-related deaths in the region by February.

Looking in more detail at deaths per capita in Europe, you can see all the top countries per capita (other than the Faroe Islands) are all in the east.

Top countries for hospitalizations also tell the same tale (US and Canada are added for comparison).

(Personally, I think Serba's system can only go up to 999)

Russian and Latvia have already imposed another round of lockdowns and other countries are not far behind. Ireland, one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in Europe at a level similar to Canada, seeing what is happening in the UK, has stalled lifting its restrictions.

Here in Canada, things continue to improve with the subsidence of our fourth wave. Over the last two weeks cases are down 20% (they peaked around September 18) and deaths 33% (they peaked around October 18). Also, for the first time in a long time, our cases, hospitalizations and new deaths are lower than they were this time last year, when our second wave was ramping up.

This week's shout-out goes to the Northwest Territories. A month ago they had the highest per capita case rate of any region in Canada since the pandemic began, and now they are almost back to the Canadian average (unfortunately it is now the Yukon's turn).

Cheers

Cliff