Thought of the Day - October 17 2021 - By the Numbers

As has been the theme for a number of months now, the world's COVID weekly figures, cases (-4%) and deaths (-8%), continue to decline.

Unfortunately, this is not the case across Europe.

Cases in Europe continue to increase - they have now eclipsed North America as having the most new cases per capita in the world.

And their deaths are also increasing, they will catch North America in the coming weeks.

From Ireland to Russia (that just topped 1,000 deaths in one day for the first time) cases are on the rise. Places like the UK continue to have very high case rates (part of their undeclared natural immunity push) and now many eastern European countries are also in trouble. While you could say this maybe due to a higher level of reporting in Europe compared to other parts of the world, it is the trend that is worrying not just the volume.

We need to face the fact that the world overall is in about the same place as last year (concerning deaths per million). This means that globally therapeutics have managed to compensate for the more transmissible Delta variant. In contrast, Europe, despite being the most heavily vaccinated continent on the planet, is now seeing three times the number of deaths as they were this time last year.

While things are still improving in North America, because Europe tends to be a little ahead in its waves this does not bode well for our future.

Meanwhile, what has been happening here in Canada? Our fourth wave is largely behind us, even hospitalization continues to decline, and thus deaths should follow suit by the end of the month as predicted.

This wave was a tale of two countries. The outliers (the Western Provinces, the Northern Territories, and the Atlantic Provinces) by and large had, and are still having issues, while Ontario and Quebec, faired fairly well - quite a contrast to a year ago. We have to hope that the policy lessons learned by these more successful provinces are adopted by the remainder to help stave off our fifth wave, still predicted for near year-end.

Looking a little deeper in BC. New cases are now declining. Hospitalizations are still rising slowly. Deaths, while up sharply this week, may partially be a result of underreporting from the week before. BC recently went over the 2,000 mark in official deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Comparing to last year at this time, we have 5,128 active cases (a little less than 4 times last year's 1,494), 367 in hospital (slightly over 4 times 2020 when there were only 74), and the same number (19) of care homes with outbreaks. More information is surfacing concerning Burnaby's Willingdon Care Home where nearly 100 residents and staff have tested positive since the outbreak started at the end of last month. While the official death count is three at present, it is expected the final figure will be in double digits.

BC introduced a number of restrictions in northern regions last week in the hope of curtailing the spread. This includes withdrawing the right of unvaccinated people to privately assemble and an alcohol curfew at 10 pm.

This week's shout-out goes once again to Ontario. They have less than half of Canada's average new case rates and a third of the current death rate per capita. And, unlike many provinces, Ontario is currently seeing about the same number of people in hospital as there were a year ago - not a high bar but an exemplar nonetheless.

Cheers

Cliff