Thought of the Day - October 5 - The Trumps

Well the news dominating the media from late last week is the US President Donald Trump and the First Lady Melania have contracted COVID-19.

A couple of reactions. First, it is not surprising. Other so called populist leaders such as the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro have already had COVID-19. COVID is a hazard to all public leaders but more so those who chose to lead through bravado rather than be exemplars in prevention.

Secondly, there has been press on the likelihood of Donald Trump succumbing to COVID-19 due to his advanced age (74) and being overweight. It is true that age has an important correlation with fatality. And he is male, also increasing his risk factor. For men close to 75 there is about a 4% chance of death. That said the US Presidents chances are far, far better:

1. He is been screened regularly both for overall health and early COVID infection detection;

2. Our understanding and thus the standard of care and required intervention has improved significantly since the early the spring;

3. He has also shown he will adopt early interventions (Vitamin-D) (thus all the golfing) and HCQ/Zinc (shown to be effective in the right doses and timing);

4. Being the President he will undoubtedly have the best of care - no one will want the country's president to succumb on their watch;

5. His much maligned weight is a far cry from the average definition of gross-obesity plaguing the Americas.

So in short the issue is not whether he will survive COVID (and Melania a woman at 50 has a much higher chance) but rather at what speed he will recover. The US Presidency is one of the most demanding roles in the world, even more so in the lead-up to the trials and tribulations of a US-style election.

Personally, like Boris and Jair, I think Donald will bounce back quickly.

Cheers

Cliff