Thought of the Day - February 25 2022 - Why Omicron Is A Good Thing

I have covered this before but I am still amazed how few people understand how lucky we were that the Omicron variant showed up. Here are a few background figures (these numbers are somewhat debatable given different demographics and virus strains, they are an amalgamation of studies I have seen).

1. Omicron is more transmissible (probably 4X).

2. Omicron is less deadly (probably 3X) than Delta (that fueled our fourth wave).

3. With Delta, vaccines prevented death and hospitalization around 8X.

4. There is no evidence that vaccines reduce transmission to any significant degree.

5. Vaccine protection wanes significantly around the six-month mark, as you lose your active blood antibodies.

6. COVID infection can reoccur. As with other respiratory diseases like cold and the flu, some people are more susceptible than others.

7. COVID has by now probably infected more than half of all Canadians (for some reason Canada has no self-reporting app and publication of infection sampling data is sporadic).

8. People that have fully recovered from COVID are 6X times less likely to have significant consequences from a subsequent COVID infection than if they had simply been vaccinated (so-called natural immunity).

9. Protection levels following infection last for more than a year.

So what does this all mean:

1. Omicron, due to its increased transmissibility, now represents 98% of all cases in Canada. it has virtually wiped out the earlier strains such as Delta.

2. A vaccinated person contracting Omicron versus an unvaccinated contracting Delta for the first time is 25 times less likely to have problems.

3. If you have already survived COVID (any strain) you are 50 times less likely to have problems in the future.

Thus the Omicron variant is the best thing that has happened. First, it has out-competed (gotten rid of) the more deadly variants. Second, the less deadly Omicron arrived when the majority of the people in Canada were currently protected by the vaccine (millions already had COVID thus were well protected from further serious consequences). As a consequence, due to its high rate of transmission, Omicron had now spread across vast swaths of the Canadian population (at the beginning of January one in four Canadians tested positive), and thus have provided most Canadians with better protection going forward than any vaccine could have, both in degree and duration.

This is the reason why many countries are taking this opportunity and embracing the Omicron gift and winding down all of their COVID legal restrictions, rather than hunkering down and taking their chances on the next iteration of SARS-CoV-2.

Now is the right time to put pandemic thinking behind us.

Cheers

Cliff