Thought of the Day - June 26 - Worrying Signs Concerning Immunity

Back in March I was optimistic that those who "Recovered" from a bout of COVID-19, while potentially health compromised, should be immune (https://clifffraser0.wixsite.com/covid-19/post/thought-of-the-day-may-27-if-you-are-infected-do-you-become-immune). This requires that the virus not substantially mutate and that the antibodies created to drive off SARS-Cov-2 remain viable.

As mentioned viral mutations are happening to SARS-CoV-2. Up to this point there only seem to be two strains: Classic that spread from China (D614), and European that has spread the Americas and back to China (D614G). The second seems to have more viable "spike proteins" leading to higher infectivity and has become the dominant strain. That said, we do not yet know whether those who have recovered from the Classic strain can be reinfected by the European strain. If they can this could mean reinfection is possible across South-East Asian countries. The belief that this may be the case is the reason why China reacted so significantly to the recent outbreak in Beijing (testing millions of people and disrupting the market that supplies the majority of produce to the city).

Next, there are reports that for asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 either antibody counts are very low from the outset or they seem to decrease after a couple of months. This may mean that:

• asymptomatic cases do not develop antibodies in the same way;

• all SARS-CoV-2 antibodies are lost over the fullness of time (asymptomatic cases just lose them more quickly);

• COVID testing, both antigen and antibody, are suspect.

If either mutation or antibody loss prove to be the case, then the move to Herd-Immunity - accelerated with a vaccine or not - is in jeopardy. Fingers crossed neither proves to be the case.

Cheers

Cliff