Thought of the Day - November 17 - Test-accuracy

I am always amazed how people and businesses continue to be confounded by COVID-19 test results. Face it people, PCR antigen tests report about 30% false negatives and about 0.1% false positives ( Thought of the Day - September 21 - Testing ). We are now adopting the Rapid-Tests that, as far as I can tell, are far, far, less accurate.

I had to chuckle when I saw the note about Elon Musk, who was not feeling well the other day. He went in for a COVID test - well actually he went in four times in the same day for a test. The results (same test, same machine, same nurse) were: two positive and two negative. Now we need to take this story with a grain of salt, as it is well known that Musk is an anti-lockdown advocate and so likes to "stir the pot", but I am not surprised.

The next story is from the ill-fated SeaDream Yacht Club, one of the world's smallest cruise companies - it did not even make my earlier list ( Thought of the Day - October 13 - Breakers Yard Boom ). They were the first to restart cruising in the Caribbean. The SeaDream 1 is a mini-luxury liner. There were only 53 passengers and 66 crew onboard. Passengers were tested twice prior to embarkation, body temperature and oxygen level checks were carried out, and they had their luggage disinfected. Moreover, they were to be tested again four days into the cruise. One passenger became sick and tested positive, so the ship turned back to Barbados. The next press announcement I saw claimed test was a false positive (this has since been withdrawn). But by the end of last week they had reported seven guest and two crew members had tested positive onboard (one of which is now in hospital).

In response, SeaDream Yacht Club is cancelling the rest of its 2020 cruises. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd is following suit, suspending its subsidiary Celebrity's sailing until the end of the year, but also they just announced they are "seeking volunteers for mock voyages". I would guess they are trying to practice their new procedures; will this be like the airlines flight to nowhere but with extra testing thrown-in for good measure?

Dang, while I empathize with companies trying to save their businesses, it should be obvious: You cannot bet your business on the accuracy of COVID-19 testing!

Cheers

Cliff