Thought of the Day - November 18 2021 - Putting the COVID Pandemic Into Perspective Once Again

Nine months ago we looked at the various pandemics of the past ( Thought of the Day - February 18 - Putting Things Into Perspective ). Official figures for COVID-19 have now topped 5M and, as we have talked about before, if 'with' rather than 'from' is used there are more likely closer to 8M.

So this means COVID has now moved past the 17th Century Great Plagues and the Antoine Plague from when Rome was a mighty empire and is closing in on the Third Plague from two centuries ago.

But wait a minute, there is a different angle here. The world population is vastly different now than for most of these other plagues. While any death is tragic, when we talk about risk COVID-19 is probably not in the same league as any of these.

At times we liken COVID-19 to the Spanish Flu. Suggesting if our current vaccines had not been introduced we would be in the same boat. That said, I see no indication that the respective 'boats' are at all the same size.

Here is a sheet for reference (thanks Mike):

It illustrates that the Spanish Flu took more than 25 times as many people, as a percentage of the population, when compared to our current official figures for COVID.

When we looked at this earlier, we were all hoping that COVID would be winding down by now. Instead of making future projections, by now we would be totalling up the damage. We would be able to concretely compare COVID with pandemics of the past and be talking about lessons learned for future pandemics.

In any event, let's think if there are any comparisons to be made at this time.

To start with we are still seeing that COVID is far less deadly than the Spanish Flu.

We are coming up on two years since the first diagnosed case. Yet, unlike the Spanish Flu, we have yet to see any reports of herd immunity being reached. Indeed, several countries in Europe have reported that over 90% of the tested population as having blood antibodies, and yet Europe's cases are the highest ever!

Could this be that SARS-CoV-2 is a different beast and so herd immunity cannot be achieved?

Could this stem from our differing approach to managing the pandemic? Is the deployment of vaccines, while saving lives in the near term, just delaying the inevitable? For example, I know a person who has had COVID, was then double vaxxed and subsequently got it again. Let's hope this is a rare exception.

It is interesting when you look at the numbers - they provide food for thought.

Cheers

Cliff