Thought of the Day - September 10 2021 - So What Is a Country to Do?

Okay, over the past week, we have set the stage.

In summary:

• SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay;

• Vaccines, while a great weapon, are only part of the solution;

• Herd immunity will not happen;

• The value of mass testing may be in the past;

• There has been no progress in the approval of COVID therapeutics.

Up until now, Canada has had a three-pronged approach to tackling COVID:

1. Protect the medical system;

2. Overinvest in vaccines;

3. Throw money at other issues as they arise.

Countries around the world would love to have been in Canada's position, to be able to leverage our provincial medical systems, and to have access to cheap credit. This approach, while anything but thrifty, has worked better than many.

So what should Canada do now as the "Emergency Pandemic Measures" meld into the "New Normal"?

Well, let's consider a couple of examples from around the world.

Australia

It was what some dubbed the "Fortress Australia" plan. Australia aimed to maintain "Covid Zero" by blocking foreign arrivals, hunting for every infection, and shutting state borders after outbreaks ( Thought of the Day - November 25 - COVID Zero ). City and state-wide lockdowns have been frequently enacted - sometimes after a single case. However, authorities have now said Covid Zero is no longer achievable. Australia has changed its strategy: "it's time to leave lockdowns and 'come out of the cave'", Prime Minister Scott Morrison said. "With vaccinations accelerating," he says "Australians will soon 'live with the virus' for the first time - that is, not try to eliminate it." It is a drastic shift.

UK

The UK is a real conundrum. With the change in their Health Minister, the UK moved from lockdown to a 'Let It Burn' strategy ( Thought of the Day - July 25 2021 - By the Numbers ). They were one of the first western countries to drive for herd immunity. But given continued hospitalizations and deaths they have put an end to this approach. As they have now concluded that herd immunity is not achievable, lockdowns are now being reimposed. It is a drastic shift back.

USA

Biden just announced an update to the US' Federal strategy (it is a significant step up):

• Vaccine mandate for federal workers and contractors, large employers, health care staff and large entertainment venus;

• Vaccine booster shots;

• Increased mass testing and mask-wearing;

• Addressing the impacts of pandemic-induced recession;

• Keeping schools open;

• Improving healthcare for people infected with COVID-19.

So what do I predict for Canada?

We will continue on the current path. We have already invested in vaccine supply for years to come, so we will take the vaccine booster route, enforced by vaccine passports. We are unlikely to attempt to move the bar concerning therapeutics. While we are opening up for international travel, we will start to reimplement restrictions domestically. While this approach will again do better than many, there will be one consequence. Like successes in 2020 were marred with the tragedy of care homes, 2021 will be the tragedy of the unvaccinated. Why, because we are only backing the one-trick pony of vaccines. As Canada is not considering therapeutics, this means that a fifth of our population, the unvaccinated, remain an order of magnitude more likely to die.

We believe that we are an inclusive society but if you are unvaccinated, by choice, age or necessity, you will be shunned - no longer allowed to fully participate in our society. With the implementation of vaccine passports, provinces are setting up the equivalent of digital "lepper colonies" to house millions of Canadians.

Cheers

Cliff