Thought of the Day - September 19 2021 - By the Numbers

As you are well aware Canada is bracing for what could be our biggest wave yet. You also know that we are about a month behind the US, where headlines read in the last week more than 1 in 500 people have now died from COVID (here in Canada the figure is 1 in about 1,400 at present and at the top of the list globally is Peru with 1 on 170 people). Unlike the US where cases and hospitalizations continue to decline, in Canada cases, hospitalizations and deaths were all up again over the past week.

Today, I am going to change gears a little and look at forecasts from the Insitute for Health Metrics and Evaluations ( https://covid19.healthdata.org/canada ). Based out of the University of Washington, they have been doing COVID modelling for countries around the world for the past year. So let's see what is forecast for us if we continue the way we are going.

Vaccination Rates

First, vaccination rates. We currently have around 76% of the population with one dose and 70% two doses, this is forecast to rise only slightly to 77% single and 73% double by the end of the year (provided that kids do not become eligible). It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the introduction of vaccine passports and mandates has on this projection.

Direct Deaths from COVID

Despite more than three-quarters of our population having been vaccinated, it is forecast that in total 43,181 people will still die directly from COVID by the end of 2021. This means as Canada's current fatality count is 27,383, over 15,000 more fatalities will be recorded by year-end; with the result that 2021's final tally will be 75% larger than that of 2020. Bringing us, by the end of the year, to 1 in 900 having died from COVID in Canada.

Indirect Deaths from COVID

In 2020, 15,668 people officially died from COVID and yet there were 25,370 excess deaths in Canada in the year (more than previous years' averages). This means almost another ten thousand people died indirectly from COVID in 2020; mostly from the effect of COVID counter-measures.

As many of the people who did die in 2020 were the most vulnerable, it was expected that excess deaths would decrease in 2021. However, the Insitute projects that there will be 44,524 excess deaths in 2021 meaning that there will be 17,011 indirect COVID deaths this year or also almost 75% more this year than last.

One of the reasons for the significant death toll will be the lack of support programs and medical care. We are currently utilizing about 5,900 beds and 1,380 IUCs across the country. The forecast is that bed use will increase eightfold by the peak in mid-December and that IUC usage will be up by an order of magnitude.

What I have been quoting here are their currently projected figures. They also have a worst-case about 60% higher and an optimistic case 20% lower. I know at times I come across as a bit of a pessimist in thinking that COVID in 2021 would be as bad as 2020. However, here we have an organization that does health modelling now saying that Canada will not peak this fall and then see a decline like the US. Maybe they believe because of our low rate of infection to this point we have less natural immunity. The bottom line is they predict that our fourth wave will be our worst yet, and even using their best-case scenario, by the end of this year, Canada will have experienced a 25% higher death toll than in 2020.

Cheers

Cliff