Thought of the Day - What Strategy To Choose?

Hi All,

If you are not in the mood for bad news then just delete this message, now – you have been warned.

For the last month I have been scratching my head trying to understand the approach that our authorities will be taking to combat Covid-19. Like many countries messages have been unclear, and actions at times have been in direct conflict with these messages. Anyway, a little while ago I compiled my thinking as to the broad options available. I am now seeing more and more discussion on this topic so figure it is a good time to share – if this resonates, have a look online as there are a number of people who can describe the options better than I – hopefully this is not new news to you, just may be presented a little differently.

Below are the details of the three main options (all of which have major consequences):

1) Shut Everything Down (Lock ’em Up) – stop the virus spread by isolating as many people as possible.

2) Pro-Actively Detect And Manage (Slow Burn) – stop the spread with pro-active testing and tracing so an explosion of cases cannot happen.

3) Get It Over With (Herd Immunization) – this is the default, the Spanish-flu died out when enough of the general population had had it and so were immune.

The question is which Canada, BC and ultimately you choose to adopt.

We have already moved through several phases here in Canada:

So for the next couple of months it will be a delicate balance to try to avoid the worst of Options 1 and 3 (too much Option 3 medical system breaks down, too much Option 1 supply chains breaks down), and in the meantime trying to keep civil unrest at a minimum by re-presenting aspects of the defunct Option 2. Not an easy job!

Cliff