Thought of the Day - December 31 2021 - Refections on the Last Day of 2021

So here we are, the last day of 2021. What an amazing COVID journey!

We started off the year well into our second national wave. That said, we were pretty optimistic at that time ( Thought of the Day - January 1 - A Year in Review ). Particularly, due to some increased diligence around care homes supported by the fact that Canada's high case fatality rates of 2020 were finally starting to come down to world norms. Promising therapeutics were being trialled in other countries. Our vaccine program had just started. Our thinking at the time was, if we can just make it through this wave, vaccine-induced immunity would not be far away.

So let's have a look at what actually transpired in 2021.

January 2021 - Mass Vaccination Starts: With the continuation of our "Second-Wave", provinces increased lockdowns, most notably Quebec with its curfew. The provinces prepared for their deployment of the mRNA vaccines, starting with the vaccination of the most vulnerable; driven by exposure, medical issues or age. Unfortunately, after our first 100,000 vaccinations, supply delays were announced.

February 2021 - The "Second-Wave" Wanes: Although the lockdown measures slowed the spread, and thus Canada's "Second-Wave" finally abated, by this time Canada had also hit the grim milestone of 20,000 deaths. That said, looking forward, Canada did approve the AstraZeneca vaccine in addition to the existing mRNAs.

March 2021 - Vaccination Versus the "Third-Wave": With the start of our "Third-Wave", Canada followed Quebec's lead and decided to delay second doses - prioritizing the need for a first shot. Latin America became the global epicentre for COVID. The Neighbourhood Blog also celebrated an anniversary.

April 2021 - The "Third-Wave" Crests: While cases in India were exploding, as we hit one million official cases here in Canada, mid-month our case counts started to decline. Unfortunately, also at this time, various vaccine suppliers started to have issues, as news of side effects reached the general public. AstraZeneca deployment was reviewed. Shipments of the newly approved J&J vaccine were halted.

May 2021 - Vaccine Rates Ramp Up: In May, Canada had administered over 20M vaccine doses; 50% of our population had received a first dose. Canada becomes the first country to approve Pfizer for kids 12-15. We also recorded our 25,000th official COVID death.

June 2021 - Canada Reopens for a Second Time: The provinces announce plans for reopening, linked to various case or vaccination targets. Driven by this, vaccination promotion and incentives started to escalate. Canada finally introduced a compensation program for those "severely affected" by vaccination. Meanwhile, China had administered its first "billion doses", and the rest of the world was talking about Delta (using the newly-introduced WHO naming convention).

July 2021 - The Summer Hiatus: Japan hosts the delayed 2020 Summer Olympics - with no pubic attendance. Delta is now reported in Canada. But as cases are still low, thus the easing of restrictions continues across the country. The Yukon is the exception with the highest per-capita rates in the country.

August 2021 - The "Fourth-Wave" and Vaccine Mandates: Driven by the western provinces, Canada starts its Delta-driven "Fourth-Wave". The federal government and provinces start to announce vaccines passports, and the need for associated mandates. 50% of Canadians have now received their second shot.

September 2021 - The "Fourth-Wave" Peaks and Vaccine Passports are Implemented: Canada's Federal "snap-election" was held despite our "Fourth-Wave". Provinces issued their various vaccine passports. Vaccine manufacturers launch brand names for their products and obtain Canada's fully-approved status. Canada opens borders for international travellers who have had "Canada-approved" vaccine shots. Cases explode in NWT - the highest per-capita in North America.

October 2021 - The Epicentre Moves from NA Back to Europe: A more granular approach is implemented across the provinces as restrictions increase due to increased deaths. "Supply Chain issues" and the "Unvaxxed" are now blamed for the world's ills. Lockdown protests continue around the world. Canada's "Fourth-Wave" deaths finally peak. Federal Passports are required for national travel or employment with the federal government. The Blog posts its 500th entry.

November 2021 - Vaccine Expansion (Age, Boosters, Mandates) & Antiviral Approvals: Global cases reach half a billion. The US opens its land borders. Canada authorizes Pfizer vaccine for kids 5-11, and the booster program is expanded beyond the most vulnerable. Canada approves Merck and Pfizer antivirals with volume orders to follow in December.

December 2021 - Omicron: The Omicron variant, first identified in South Africa in November, is now causing case rates to increase particularly across southern Africa, Europe, North America and even down-under. Canada enters its "Fifth-Wave", initially driven by Delta in the eastern provinces, it starts to be eclipsed by Omicron. Another round of year-end restrictions were announced. Canada reaches 30,000 COVID deaths. Cases hit all-time highs across the country and in aggregate around the world.

On the Blog you can find a more detailed log highlighting the various events, incidents and milestones-> Covid-19/Timeline.

So here we are at the end of December. As the year went on it was clear that the immunity and transmission reduction expectations built around vaccinations did not pan out. That said, they did prevent death in the most vulnerable and thwarted the more lethal effects of the Delta variant. But then along came Omicron.

Like last year at this time, I am still optimistic for 2022. We will be in for a bumpy ride for January, all indications are that the Omicron variant is taking out the other strains, and due to its much greater infectivity will make mass testing meaningless. That said, Omicron is much less lethal ( Thought of the Day - December 26 2021 - By the Numbers ). Thus for the masses, this could be just what is needed for a return to "normal" as the spring approaches.

Happy New Year - eh!

Cheers

Cliff